San Diego at New England (-14) I didn’t think San Diego stood a chance against the Colts, so I damn sure don’t think San Diego can stand a chance against New England, especially considering the week 2 thrashing Belicheck has already laid on the Bolts. Peyton Manning threw for over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns last week, with 2 interceptions that were both tipped (one was certainly a fluke that bounced off BOTH of Kenton Keith’s hands. Bottom line: San Diego’s secondary did little to stop Manning and Co. on drives where they didn’t get a flukey turnover, which is great news for the record setting Patriots passing game. I don’t think the Colts punted all game, but I could be mistaken. San Diego lives by the blitz, but the Patriots offensive line has easily been the best unit in pass protection all season long (whether they get away with holds or not is another story). The Patriots should have no problem picking up Merriman, spreading that secondary out, and picking them apart (expect another huge dose of Wes Welker). I don’t see Laurence Maroney getting the ball as much as he did last week against Jacksonville, but he may play a role in screen passes that try to offset the Charger’s aggressiveness.

For San Diego, Rivers (if he plays, what a joke to humanity) will have to be efficient, not turn the ball over, and score frequently. That is much easier said than done. This is not an offense that is built to pile onto the scoreboard. Truth be told, there is nothing spectacular about the Chargers at all. Even Tomlinson has been the equivalent of a joke on the ground in his past two games, not even breaking 80 yards combined in two playoff games. He is the best running back in football, and the Chargers would love to be able to run him all day in what would be a low scoring, grind it out affair. I don’t see this happening. Even if they do accomplish this goal, nothing leads me to believe they can stop the Patriots offense more than once or twice. It must feel debilitating to be an opposing coach, staring into one of the best offenses (if not the best) in history, and so many times having to suffer through their fourth down attempt because they aren’t afraid to go for it. With the Patriots offensive aggressiveness, they frequently get four downs to pick up 10 yards, foregoing three points. That’s not fair. Patriots will win, and I don’t think it will be close. That two touchdown spread is pretty hefty, but I can easily envision a 38-17 outcome….and perhaps worse.

NY Giants at Green Bay (-7) Giants are on a roll, baby! Jump on that Eli bandwaggon, the kid’s really growing up right before our eyes. If we stop to get a hold of ourselves for a second, we will look at each of these teams and see that in no phase of the game are the Giants better. Go ahead…try to give me an area. Quarterback? Do you really want to go there? Offensive line? Don’t make me laugh. Wide Receivers/Tight Ends? Burress is probably the best on the field, but if you look at the host of options Favre has at his disposal compared to Eli, it’s almost laughable. How about Running Back? Brandon Jacobs is solid, but Ryan Grant is out-playing him, no question about it. Jacobs can’t even catch a pass and is being spelled frequently by Ahmad Bradshaw. Who? Ahmad Bradshaw. Who? Forget I said it…then there is the secondary which is even more lopsided. Two pro-bowl caliber corners for Green Bay to a very suspect unit for the Giants. With AJ Hawk and Nick Barnett, the linebackers are better than Antonio Pierce and Kawika Mitchell. Your best case is to point out the teams defensive front 4, and perhaps you have me there. Umenyiora/Strahan and Co. produced the most sacks in the NFL. Aaron Kampman is also very good for the Packers however and is just as capable of disrupting the throw.

So then, I feel it will come down to whether or not Strahan and Umenyiora can disrupt Favre enough into forcing the Packers into 3 and out and maybe even throwing a couple of Interceptions. Keep in mind, however, that Seattle is also a very good pass rushing team (look what they did to Todd Collins during that Wild Card Game) and the Packers line rendered them useless. The Packers offensive line was amazing last weekend, and I don’t see why they can’t continue that (also keep in mind that the Giants didn’t get to Tony Romo for a long time during last week’s affair).

And then I look at Brett Favre and see a guy who has started more playoff games than any active player in this league. He clearly has the more talented team in almost every phase of the game, he has his home crowd behind him in what could very well be his last game at Lambeau Field. And how often do you see a less talented team (the Giants) win 3 straight playoff road games?  Momentum is a powerful thing, but after everything I’ve mentioned, it’s not going to matter. Go ask the Redskins about momentum. Packers, 34-24

The Colts picked Rivers on the Charger’s opening possession.  The defender read the route and jumped on it.  After Marvin’s fumble, Rivers had all the room in the world.  The cover-2 was playing extremely soft and Rivers was fitting everything 10-15 yards down the field.  The Colt’s secondary was not aggressive.  To make matters worse, the Colt’s pass rush was awful all game.  I can’t remember them recording a sack or even very many pressures.  The defensive performance is the reason why the Colts lost this game. Both of Peyton’s interceptions were tipped (though I admit the first was overthrown).  I feel Peyton played a good ball game.  Twice he led the Colts to touchdown drives to go on top of the Chargers, and each and every time the NFL’s #1 scoring defense gave it right back.  Inexplicable.  The last time not only was Tomlinson out of the game, but Rivers as well.  How can you give up a score to Billy Volek and Darren Sproles like that?  I will never know.

San Diego heads to Foxboro next week in what will be a rematch of a heated playoff battle last season.  I didn’t think there was any chance of San Diego advancing.  I will make the same statement this week. I can only dream of Tom Brady hitting Randy Moss in stride for an 80 yard Touchdown on the first play from scrimmage..and Tom Brady sprinting out to mid-field to do the lights-out dance in front of 70 thousand screaming New England fans.

I don’t care whether  the Giants or Cowboys move on tomorrow afternoon, Green Bay is going to beat them.  They completely dominated a GOOD Seattle football team.  In the final 55 minutes of that game, they outscored the Hawks 42-6.  That is unbelievable.  The offensive line opened up holes big enough for a Mack Truck, nevermind rookie RB Ryan Grant.  Brett Favre was extrodinary, efficiently hitting guys in stride who then ran extremely well after the catch.  They made Seattle look completely worthless.  I was very impressed with the Packers offense showing.  On defense, they stuffed Seattle’s run (which was to be expected) but they also really limited the big play in the passing game.  Al Harris is terrific.  He’s not just a physical bully, he’s very good in man coverage.  If they play the Giants, I don’t see how New York will be able to move the ball.  If they play the Cowboys, I’m convinced they are simply the more talented team on both sides of the ball.

Favre will get back to the promised land.  Unfortunately, it will end there, when either New England or Indianapolis wins it all.  I’m hearing Favre contemplating an ’08 return.  This is wrong.  He needs to go out with this run.  He needs to be remembered as a king.  Whose to say he’s the man all of a sudden.  His previous two seasons were very very poor.  This could easily be an apparition.  He needs to retire on top and not risk another season.

AFC

Jacksonville @ New England- First off, I have little doubt that New England is going to advance to the Championship game next weekend. Jacksonville was torched by Manning and Brees earlier in the season, and neither of them have been as good as Brady this year. To add insult to injury, the Jags secondary let up well over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns in just the second half to Roethlisberger when they knew he would be going to the air. These are not good signs.

Looking at the Patriots, their only weakness is in their run defense, which has something to do with the aging of Bruschi and Seau on the inside. The Pats are 26th in the league in yardage given up per attempt. Now, normally this would be a red flag, but not when you have the best statistical offense on the other side of the ball. Fred Taylor and Jones-Drew will not run wild simply because they won’t be able to. The Patriots will score early and often, which will force Garrard and the Jags to move away from the run that they rely on. With Bellicheck preparing a defensive scheme for two weeks, I can see some mistakes as well. Everybody is high on the Jaguars like they didn’t see the ultimate implosion in the second half of last week. Everybody is down on the Patriots because they weren’t as dominant towards the end of the season. But this is the playoffs, where New England always seems to get the most out of their players. I don’t think this one will be close. Patriots 38-23

San Diego @ Indianapolis- Again, right off the bat, let me just say that Indy is definitely moving on here. Even with Antonio Gates and without Marvin Harrison, I would not be concerned with this San Diego team. As it stands, Marvin Harrison should be lined up to Peyton’s right on Sunday, while Gates is doubtful for the contest.

I don’t anticipate this game to be close at all. Indy’s rush Defense is no longer the epidemic it once was, and Tomlinson hasn’t exactly been lighting it up through the ground. Again though, with Indy’s high powered offense, I just think this will be domination. I feel this will be the most comfortable game of the weekend. San Diego can’t afford to move away from the run, but I think they will have to. Unless Rivers plays the game of his life (and without Gates and against the 2nd best pass defense in football, this is doubtful) the Colts will win easily. I feel this is the most attractive game on the schedule with Indy giving less than 10 points, they should win by double digits. Indianapolis 31-17

NFC

Seattle @ Green Bay- This game intrigues me. These two teams are very similar. They both rely on moving the ball through the air on offense (though Ryan Grant has surprised some people) and both have underrated, stingy defenses against the pass and the run. The difference is, Green Bay does it a little bit better all the way around. Favre has impressed more than Hasselbeck, Hawk/Barnett have impressed more than Tatupu/Peterson, and Al Harris/Charles Woodson are ahead of Trufant and the Hawks secondary.

When I first looked at this game, I saw it as a game Seattle could very well win, and even thought about taking them in an upset. Then I thought that they could at least keep it close. But the more I think about this, I don’t feel like Seattle can compete. What do they really have going for them that Green Bay doesn’t combat. Then, you must consider that they are on the road, where they have lost 5 of 8 games this season. Meanwhile, Green Bay is 7-1 at Lambeau, and its going to be frosty tomorrow afternoon. Green Bay will win this one, but I don’t think they can cover that 8.5 point spread. The reason Seattle will keep it within a touchdown is their very good pass defense. Favre has been prone to making mistakes in the past, and the Seahawks were fourth in the NFL with 20 INTs. Packers 27-20

NY Giants @ Dallas- Everybody is jumping on the Giants bandwaggon in the last few weeks. They’re talking about Eli Manning finally maturing. Many people feel the Giants may even win this game. I don’t see it. First off, Owens is going to suit up. He was running routes with not much discomfort on Thursday, and this is a guy who put up gaudy numbers in a Superbowl where he was coming back from a broken leg. He’ll be out there, and he will score at least once against the Giants suspect secondary. Another thing that will hurt the Giants is the loss of Jeremy Shockey. They really haven’t felt it yet, but they will this week when Eli Manning will not be able to find open receivers. Shockey had 170 yards in the team’s first two matchups, both Giant losses.

What has changed since then? Well, the quarterbacks. Everybody thinks Romo is a head case whose mind is being screwed with by Jessica Simpson. They think Eli is Peyton. The scripts have been completely reversed to the point where its comical. This is the same Eli Manning who went through an 8 week stretch without throwing more than 1 touchdown pass. I don’t see him throwing more than that on Sunday. Again, this is the playoffs. And don’t think that Romo forgets that botched snap last season. He will be focused, he may even have Terry Glenn as a bonus, but I don’t think they will need him. The Cowboys will advance to the NFC Title game, and they will cover the 7.5 point spread. When Vegas puts a spread at 7.5, a flashing light has to go off in your head. They are begging you to take the points because its over a touchdown. Well, more often than not Vegas is right. Cowboys 28-16

It was a nightmare. Six picks. Peyton Manning had never been intercepted six times in his entire career. That was week 10, when the San Diego Chargers upset the road favorite Indianapolis Colts. The key words in that sentence are ‘week 10′. Ancient History as far as I’m concerned. First of all, lets not forget that the Colts should’ve won that game despite those six turnovers. The best clutch kicker in NFL history missed a FG from inside of thirty yards in the final moments that would’ve put the Colts on top. That just doesn’t happen. When the Chargers travel to the RCA Dome this Sunday, it won’t matter.

Peyton Manning is going to torch that defense this week. Call it a gut feeling, call it stupid, but don’t be surprised when San Diego looks like a bunch of toddlers trying to jump up and snatch the candy bar from their teasing sibling. Don’t mind the poor comparison, it’s just, I could go for a chocolate bar…

For one thing, Manning was utilizing Carphonso Thorpe heavily in that game. It was one of the first couple of games the Colts were without the services of Marvin Harrison, who will probably play this weekend. Additionally, pro-bowl calibur tight end Dallas Clark was also inactive in this contest. Manning will be at home with his whole arsenal of weapons. San Diego can try to bring the heat like they did to Tennessee in the second half of that ball game, but it won’t work. You see, Tony Ugoh is also back in action, the rookie left tackle who is doing a fine job replacing Tarik Glenn. He was also out for that week 10 match-up. The blitz will be picked up (Manning has been sacked less often than any single quarterback in NFL history) and they will pay.

Chargers CB Antonio Cromarte is having a hell of a season. I don’t have anything to combat that, except a probowl Wide Out named Reggie Wayne, and when it’s all said and done what will be the best statistical quarterback to ever throw on shoulder pads. Peyton is most definitely not going to forget that nightmarish performance on the West Coast. That is bad, bad news for the Chargers. Vegas has the Colts giving 8.5-9 this week. That’s criminal. Give the points with comfort and be prepared to suffer through Tomlinson’s ridiculous whining during the post game.

Can we send the Patriots to the AFC Title Game already? Coming off Jacksonville’s 31-29 victory (if you can really call it that) over Pittsburgh, I am disgusted. I am beyond disgusted. Here’s a team that came out of the gates and made all kinds of big plays. The Jones-Drew kick return is the answer that set the tone for the whole first half. And then the Mathis INT return for a TD puts them on top and the audience gets the idea that Big Ben is in for a long night. Another interception later and a great touchdown pass to Jones-Drew, and I’m ready to put this one on ice. It was a dominating display and everybody looked justified in taking Jacksonville this week.

Fast forward to the fourth quarter. Fourth and 12 for Pittsburgh in Jacksonville territory. Up pops the obligatory graphic (the largest fourth quarter deficit to be overcome in playoff history was 16 points. The Steelers were down18.) Jags Blitz. Steelers pick it up. Touchdown. Okay, you say, its still an 11 point game, no need to worry. And on most occassions, you would be right. But not with the Jags, no. They’d rather see their fan base collapse of a heart attack than hold onto an 18 point lead. Two more unanswered Pittsburgh touchdowns (with failed conversions, thank God), and the Steelers go up 1. At this point, I want to throw numerous heavy objects at my television. The Jags can’t complete a pass. They can’t run for more than 2 yards. They can’t stop Roethlisberger from doing whatever the hell he wants despite how little of a threat Davenport was all game.

Eventually Garrard would scramble deep into Pittsburgh territory, and the Jaguars were saved of complete and utter embarrassment. One thing is certain. This team will get rocked by the Patriots next week. Garrard looks great on some throws. On other occasions (that interception in the fourth where he was throwing to his 18 foot wide receiver) he looks putrid. I have serious doubts about him handling a Bill Belicheck scheme. While the Patriots have allowed 4.2 yards per carry on the ground this year (26th in the NFL—something that stands to benefit Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor), they have often left ground games dead simply because their opposition cannot afford to run. This is exactly what will happen next week in Foxboro. The Patriots will jump out, pile it on, and the Jaguars will have no choice but to make mistakes through the air and abandon the run. It’s not all that impressive picking the Patriots as a lock to win, but I have a better chance of out-running a Kenyan in the Boston Marathon than the Jaguars do at smelling a victory at New England.