Conference Championship Picks

Last week was just brutal for me going 0-4 against the spread and just 2-2 straight up. I’m still reeling over that Indianapolis game. Nothing in the world seemed like more of a lock to me (if not covering 9, then at least winning the ball game). But San Diego won the turnover battle (as they have all season long, with a +24 give/take ratio) and are moving on to face the New England Patriots. There was another shocker in the NFC as the Giants were able to defeat the Cowboys in Dallas. A lot of people thought the Giants would stay close in that game, but I’m not sure how many people outside of the Meadowlands thought they would actually represent the NFC East in the Conference Title game. Onto the picks…

San Diego at New England (-14) I didn’t think San Diego stood a chance against the Colts, so I damn sure don’t think San Diego can stand a chance against New England, especially considering the week 2 thrashing Belicheck has already laid on the Bolts. Peyton Manning threw for over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns last week, with 2 interceptions that were both tipped (one was certainly a fluke that bounced off BOTH of Kenton Keith’s hands. Bottom line: San Diego’s secondary did little to stop Manning and Co. on drives where they didn’t get a flukey turnover, which is great news for the record setting Patriots passing game. I don’t think the Colts punted all game, but I could be mistaken. San Diego lives by the blitz, but the Patriots offensive line has easily been the best unit in pass protection all season long (whether they get away with holds or not is another story). The Patriots should have no problem picking up Merriman, spreading that secondary out, and picking them apart (expect another huge dose of Wes Welker). I don’t see Laurence Maroney getting the ball as much as he did last week against Jacksonville, but he may play a role in screen passes that try to offset the Charger’s aggressiveness.

For San Diego, Rivers (if he plays, what a joke to humanity) will have to be efficient, not turn the ball over, and score frequently. That is much easier said than done. This is not an offense that is built to pile onto the scoreboard. Truth be told, there is nothing spectacular about the Chargers at all. Even Tomlinson has been the equivalent of a joke on the ground in his past two games, not even breaking 80 yards combined in two playoff games. He is the best running back in football, and the Chargers would love to be able to run him all day in what would be a low scoring, grind it out affair. I don’t see this happening. Even if they do accomplish this goal, nothing leads me to believe they can stop the Patriots offense more than once or twice. It must feel debilitating to be an opposing coach, staring into one of the best offenses (if not the best) in history, and so many times having to suffer through their fourth down attempt because they aren’t afraid to go for it. With the Patriots offensive aggressiveness, they frequently get four downs to pick up 10 yards, foregoing three points. That’s not fair. Patriots will win, and I don’t think it will be close. That two touchdown spread is pretty hefty, but I can easily envision a 38-17 outcome….and perhaps worse.

NY Giants at Green Bay (-7) Giants are on a roll, baby! Jump on that Eli bandwaggon, the kid’s really growing up right before our eyes. If we stop to get a hold of ourselves for a second, we will look at each of these teams and see that in no phase of the game are the Giants better. Go ahead…try to give me an area. Quarterback? Do you really want to go there? Offensive line? Don’t make me laugh. Wide Receivers/Tight Ends? Burress is probably the best on the field, but if you look at the host of options Favre has at his disposal compared to Eli, it’s almost laughable. How about Running Back? Brandon Jacobs is solid, but Ryan Grant is out-playing him, no question about it. Jacobs can’t even catch a pass and is being spelled frequently by Ahmad Bradshaw. Who? Ahmad Bradshaw. Who? Forget I said it…then there is the secondary which is even more lopsided. Two pro-bowl caliber corners for Green Bay to a very suspect unit for the Giants. With AJ Hawk and Nick Barnett, the linebackers are better than Antonio Pierce and Kawika Mitchell. Your best case is to point out the teams defensive front 4, and perhaps you have me there. Umenyiora/Strahan and Co. produced the most sacks in the NFL. Aaron Kampman is also very good for the Packers however and is just as capable of disrupting the throw.

So then, I feel it will come down to whether or not Strahan and Umenyiora can disrupt Favre enough into forcing the Packers into 3 and out and maybe even throwing a couple of Interceptions. Keep in mind, however, that Seattle is also a very good pass rushing team (look what they did to Todd Collins during that Wild Card Game) and the Packers line rendered them useless. The Packers offensive line was amazing last weekend, and I don’t see why they can’t continue that (also keep in mind that the Giants didn’t get to Tony Romo for a long time during last week’s affair).

And then I look at Brett Favre and see a guy who has started more playoff games than any active player in this league. He clearly has the more talented team in almost every phase of the game, he has his home crowd behind him in what could very well be his last game at Lambeau Field. And how often do you see a less talented team (the Giants) win 3 straight playoff road games?  Momentum is a powerful thing, but after everything I’ve mentioned, it’s not going to matter. Go ask the Redskins about momentum. Packers, 34-24

Divisional Round Picks

Last week I went 3-1 against the spread, 4-0 straight up. For the playoffs I am 3-5 Against the Spread and 6-2 straight up.  I thought Tennessee could keep it close, and they were playing just like I wanted to for most of the game..too bad Bironas missed that 38 yarder. Anyway, onto the picks.

AFC

Jacksonville @ New England- First off, I have little doubt that New England is going to advance to the Championship game next weekend. Jacksonville was torched by Manning and Brees earlier in the season, and neither of them have been as good as Brady this year. To add insult to injury, the Jags secondary let up well over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns in just the second half to Roethlisberger when they knew he would be going to the air. These are not good signs.

Looking at the Patriots, their only weakness is in their run defense, which has something to do with the aging of Bruschi and Seau on the inside. The Pats are 26th in the league in yardage given up per attempt. Now, normally this would be a red flag, but not when you have the best statistical offense on the other side of the ball. Fred Taylor and Jones-Drew will not run wild simply because they won’t be able to. The Patriots will score early and often, which will force Garrard and the Jags to move away from the run that they rely on. With Bellicheck preparing a defensive scheme for two weeks, I can see some mistakes as well. Everybody is high on the Jaguars like they didn’t see the ultimate implosion in the second half of last week. Everybody is down on the Patriots because they weren’t as dominant towards the end of the season. But this is the playoffs, where New England always seems to get the most out of their players. I don’t think this one will be close. Patriots 38-23

San Diego @ Indianapolis- Again, right off the bat, let me just say that Indy is definitely moving on here. Even with Antonio Gates and without Marvin Harrison, I would not be concerned with this San Diego team. As it stands, Marvin Harrison should be lined up to Peyton’s right on Sunday, while Gates is doubtful for the contest.

I don’t anticipate this game to be close at all. Indy’s rush Defense is no longer the epidemic it once was, and Tomlinson hasn’t exactly been lighting it up through the ground. Again though, with Indy’s high powered offense, I just think this will be domination. I feel this will be the most comfortable game of the weekend. San Diego can’t afford to move away from the run, but I think they will have to. Unless Rivers plays the game of his life (and without Gates and against the 2nd best pass defense in football, this is doubtful) the Colts will win easily. I feel this is the most attractive game on the schedule with Indy giving less than 10 points, they should win by double digits. Indianapolis 31-17

NFC

Seattle @ Green Bay- This game intrigues me. These two teams are very similar. They both rely on moving the ball through the air on offense (though Ryan Grant has surprised some people) and both have underrated, stingy defenses against the pass and the run. The difference is, Green Bay does it a little bit better all the way around. Favre has impressed more than Hasselbeck, Hawk/Barnett have impressed more than Tatupu/Peterson, and Al Harris/Charles Woodson are ahead of Trufant and the Hawks secondary.

When I first looked at this game, I saw it as a game Seattle could very well win, and even thought about taking them in an upset. Then I thought that they could at least keep it close. But the more I think about this, I don’t feel like Seattle can compete. What do they really have going for them that Green Bay doesn’t combat. Then, you must consider that they are on the road, where they have lost 5 of 8 games this season. Meanwhile, Green Bay is 7-1 at Lambeau, and its going to be frosty tomorrow afternoon. Green Bay will win this one, but I don’t think they can cover that 8.5 point spread. The reason Seattle will keep it within a touchdown is their very good pass defense. Favre has been prone to making mistakes in the past, and the Seahawks were fourth in the NFL with 20 INTs. Packers 27-20

NY Giants @ Dallas- Everybody is jumping on the Giants bandwaggon in the last few weeks. They’re talking about Eli Manning finally maturing. Many people feel the Giants may even win this game. I don’t see it. First off, Owens is going to suit up. He was running routes with not much discomfort on Thursday, and this is a guy who put up gaudy numbers in a Superbowl where he was coming back from a broken leg. He’ll be out there, and he will score at least once against the Giants suspect secondary. Another thing that will hurt the Giants is the loss of Jeremy Shockey. They really haven’t felt it yet, but they will this week when Eli Manning will not be able to find open receivers. Shockey had 170 yards in the team’s first two matchups, both Giant losses.

What has changed since then? Well, the quarterbacks. Everybody thinks Romo is a head case whose mind is being screwed with by Jessica Simpson. They think Eli is Peyton. The scripts have been completely reversed to the point where its comical. This is the same Eli Manning who went through an 8 week stretch without throwing more than 1 touchdown pass. I don’t see him throwing more than that on Sunday. Again, this is the playoffs. And don’t think that Romo forgets that botched snap last season. He will be focused, he may even have Terry Glenn as a bonus, but I don’t think they will need him. The Cowboys will advance to the NFC Title game, and they will cover the 7.5 point spread. When Vegas puts a spread at 7.5, a flashing light has to go off in your head. They are begging you to take the points because its over a touchdown. Well, more often than not Vegas is right. Cowboys 28-16