Conference Championship Picks

Last week was just brutal for me going 0-4 against the spread and just 2-2 straight up. I’m still reeling over that Indianapolis game. Nothing in the world seemed like more of a lock to me (if not covering 9, then at least winning the ball game). But San Diego won the turnover battle (as they have all season long, with a +24 give/take ratio) and are moving on to face the New England Patriots. There was another shocker in the NFC as the Giants were able to defeat the Cowboys in Dallas. A lot of people thought the Giants would stay close in that game, but I’m not sure how many people outside of the Meadowlands thought they would actually represent the NFC East in the Conference Title game. Onto the picks…

San Diego at New England (-14) I didn’t think San Diego stood a chance against the Colts, so I damn sure don’t think San Diego can stand a chance against New England, especially considering the week 2 thrashing Belicheck has already laid on the Bolts. Peyton Manning threw for over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns last week, with 2 interceptions that were both tipped (one was certainly a fluke that bounced off BOTH of Kenton Keith’s hands. Bottom line: San Diego’s secondary did little to stop Manning and Co. on drives where they didn’t get a flukey turnover, which is great news for the record setting Patriots passing game. I don’t think the Colts punted all game, but I could be mistaken. San Diego lives by the blitz, but the Patriots offensive line has easily been the best unit in pass protection all season long (whether they get away with holds or not is another story). The Patriots should have no problem picking up Merriman, spreading that secondary out, and picking them apart (expect another huge dose of Wes Welker). I don’t see Laurence Maroney getting the ball as much as he did last week against Jacksonville, but he may play a role in screen passes that try to offset the Charger’s aggressiveness.

For San Diego, Rivers (if he plays, what a joke to humanity) will have to be efficient, not turn the ball over, and score frequently. That is much easier said than done. This is not an offense that is built to pile onto the scoreboard. Truth be told, there is nothing spectacular about the Chargers at all. Even Tomlinson has been the equivalent of a joke on the ground in his past two games, not even breaking 80 yards combined in two playoff games. He is the best running back in football, and the Chargers would love to be able to run him all day in what would be a low scoring, grind it out affair. I don’t see this happening. Even if they do accomplish this goal, nothing leads me to believe they can stop the Patriots offense more than once or twice. It must feel debilitating to be an opposing coach, staring into one of the best offenses (if not the best) in history, and so many times having to suffer through their fourth down attempt because they aren’t afraid to go for it. With the Patriots offensive aggressiveness, they frequently get four downs to pick up 10 yards, foregoing three points. That’s not fair. Patriots will win, and I don’t think it will be close. That two touchdown spread is pretty hefty, but I can easily envision a 38-17 outcome….and perhaps worse.

NY Giants at Green Bay (-7) Giants are on a roll, baby! Jump on that Eli bandwaggon, the kid’s really growing up right before our eyes. If we stop to get a hold of ourselves for a second, we will look at each of these teams and see that in no phase of the game are the Giants better. Go ahead…try to give me an area. Quarterback? Do you really want to go there? Offensive line? Don’t make me laugh. Wide Receivers/Tight Ends? Burress is probably the best on the field, but if you look at the host of options Favre has at his disposal compared to Eli, it’s almost laughable. How about Running Back? Brandon Jacobs is solid, but Ryan Grant is out-playing him, no question about it. Jacobs can’t even catch a pass and is being spelled frequently by Ahmad Bradshaw. Who? Ahmad Bradshaw. Who? Forget I said it…then there is the secondary which is even more lopsided. Two pro-bowl caliber corners for Green Bay to a very suspect unit for the Giants. With AJ Hawk and Nick Barnett, the linebackers are better than Antonio Pierce and Kawika Mitchell. Your best case is to point out the teams defensive front 4, and perhaps you have me there. Umenyiora/Strahan and Co. produced the most sacks in the NFL. Aaron Kampman is also very good for the Packers however and is just as capable of disrupting the throw.

So then, I feel it will come down to whether or not Strahan and Umenyiora can disrupt Favre enough into forcing the Packers into 3 and out and maybe even throwing a couple of Interceptions. Keep in mind, however, that Seattle is also a very good pass rushing team (look what they did to Todd Collins during that Wild Card Game) and the Packers line rendered them useless. The Packers offensive line was amazing last weekend, and I don’t see why they can’t continue that (also keep in mind that the Giants didn’t get to Tony Romo for a long time during last week’s affair).

And then I look at Brett Favre and see a guy who has started more playoff games than any active player in this league. He clearly has the more talented team in almost every phase of the game, he has his home crowd behind him in what could very well be his last game at Lambeau Field. And how often do you see a less talented team (the Giants) win 3 straight playoff road games?  Momentum is a powerful thing, but after everything I’ve mentioned, it’s not going to matter. Go ask the Redskins about momentum. Packers, 34-24